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ACUS11 KWNS 100623
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 100623
IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-100900-

Mesoscale Discussion 0692
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0123 AM CDT Sun Jun 10 2018

Areas affected...Northeast Nebraska...Western and Central Iowa

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 100623Z - 100900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat is expected to continue across
northeast Nebraska and may develop east-southeastward into western
and southern Iowa over the next few hours. Weather watch issuance
still remains possible.

DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows easterly upslope flow
over much of Nebraska with a narrow corridor of maximized low-level
moisture from Omaha westward to North Platte. A capping inversion is
present across most of the central Plains but thunderstorms are
developing in spite of the cap in northeast Nebraska. This is likely
due in part to lift associated with the low-level jet and
large-scale ascent ahead of a subtle shortwave trough. RAP forecast
soundings in northeast Nebraska are estimating MUCAPE values of 3000
to 3500 J/kg and show effective shear in the 40 to 45 kt range. This
combined with steep mid-level lapse rates will be favorable for
isolated severe hail. As the shortwave trough moves eastward and the
low-level jet strengthens, the threat for isolated severe hail may
develop east-southeastward into western and southern Iowa over the
next few hours. An isolated wind damage threat will also be possible
with cells that are strong enough to penetrate the cap.

..Broyles/Thompson.. 06/10/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...

LAT...LON 41369731 41639833 42139870 42609858 42919816 42829671
42459484 42129303 41649267 41179278 40869301 40699349
40799409 40969520 41269654 41369731



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