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ACUS11 KWNS 040139
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040139
TXZ000-NMZ000-040315-

Mesoscale Discussion 0639
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0839 PM CDT Sun Jun 03 2018

Areas affected...Portions of southeast New Mexico and West Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 153...

Valid 040139Z - 040315Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 153
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat will continue across valid portions of
WW 153 through the 3Z expiration time. A downstream WW is likely
prior to 3Z, which may require replacing portions of WW 153 with a
new WW prior to the 3Z expiration.

DISCUSSION...Latest regional radar mosaic shows numerous strong to
severe thunderstorms continuing across valid portions of WW 153.
While activity across central New Mexico continues to evolve into
linear segments with a threat of severe wind and isolated large
hail, recent supercellular development near a residual outflow
boundary has been noted across portions of southeast New Mexico --
where mesoanalysis suggests effective bulk shear in excess of 40
knots and MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg. This activity will pose a threat of
large hail and severe wind while it remains discrete/semi-discrete
over the next hour or so. Another quasi-linear complex is
progressing across portions of West Texas, with a threat of severe
wind and isolated hail. A recent measured wind gust of 56 knots at
the Culberson, TX ASOS confirms this assertion.

Through time, the cluster of thunderstorms over New Mexico should
merge/congeal with the storms over West Texas somewhere in the
vicinity of the Permian Basin. Latest CAM guidance suggests a
complex of storms will ride along the instability gradient as they
evolve into a eastward-moving forward-propagating MCS with a severe
wind threat continuing into the overnight. Strong deep-layer shear
suggests that severe hail would also be possible -- especially with
any transient supercells embedded within the larger complex.

The severe threat will continue across portions of WW 153 through
the 3Z expiration, with a downstream WW issuance likely to account
for the potential of the forward-propagating MCS.

..Elliott/Grams.. 06/04/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

LAT...LON 34770515 35070453 35060412 34230303 31750327 29830401
29690457 30540492 31030556 31450612 33120621 33920604
34770515



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