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ACUS11 KWNS 032357
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032357
TXZ000-NMZ000-040130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0638
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0657 PM CDT Sun Jun 03 2018

Areas affected...Portions of New Mexico and far West Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 153...

Valid 032357Z - 040130Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 153
continues.

SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms continue across portions of
WW 153. While isolated instances of large hail remain possible,
severe wind gusts will become the primary severe hazard over the
next few hours.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar mosaics show two distinct areas of
thunderstorm activity across WW 153. This first is located across
portions of central New Mexico. While several storms in this area
have exhibited supercell characteristics over the last few hours, a
transition to quasi-linear structures has become evident over the
last 30 minutes. Correspondingly, reflectivity cores in MRMS CAPPIs
and MRMS MESH have been decreasing, which further suggests that
updrafts are gradually becoming weaker as rotational enhancement
decreases. While isolated large hail will be possible in the short
term, the severe hazards will evolve into primarily a severe wind
threat as the activity continues to congeal into bowing segments.

The second area recently entered portions of West Texas from Mexico.
This activity continues to generally remain linear in nature with
severe wind gusts the primary severe hazard -- except with any
quasi-discrete cells.

Through time, these two areas of convection may congeal into a
larger eastward-moving forward-propagating MCS over portions of the
Permian Basin and vicinity as they ride along the instability
gradient. A severe wind threat may continue with this activity as
it moves east across portions of West Texas and southeast New
Mexico.

..Elliott.. 06/03/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

LAT...LON 32780735 33330756 34920641 35310534 35270468 35170411
33360309 30700304 29240374 29670449 30430491 31130571
31930673 32780735



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