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ACUS11 KWNS 032214
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032214
MTZ000-IDZ000-ORZ000-WAZ000-040015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0637
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0514 PM CDT Sun Jun 03 2018

Areas affected...eastern Oregon...southeast Washington...northern
Idaho and northwest Montana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 032214Z - 040015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A few storms may become capable of producing isolated
downburst winds over the Pacific Northwest region and northern
Rockies this evening. Coverage of any severe events is expected to
remain too sparse for a WW.

DISCUSSION...Diabatic heating over the higher terrain and forcing
for ascent attending a northeast-advancing shortwave trough are
contributing to the development of thunderstorms, initially across
parts of OR. Steep lapse rates are in place with low-level dewpoints
in the 30s to low 40s contributing to MLCAPE generally near or below
500 J/kg. Wind profiles are largely unidirectional, but a mid-level
speed max within base of upper trough is resulting in 35-45 kt
effective bulk shear. Large temperature-dewpoint spreads will
promote a threat for isolated downburst winds, especially within the
higher reflectivity cores, and marginally severe hail may also
accompany the stronger storms. Primary limiting factor for a more
robust severe event is weak instability, and activity should begin a diminishing trend shortly after sunset.

..Dial/Grams.. 06/03/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MSO...BOI...OTX...PDT...MFR...

LAT...LON 48431345 47141354 45821526 44741728 42781966 43352035
44392004 45641913 47001804 48061723 48761549 48431345



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