This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

------------=_1528062988-1857-9676
Content-Type: text/plain

ACUS11 KWNS 032156
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032156
TXZ000-NMZ000-032300-

Mesoscale Discussion 0636
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0456 PM CDT Sun Jun 03 2018

Areas affected...Portions of New Mexico and far West Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 153...

Valid 032156Z - 032300Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 153
continues.

SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms will continue to pose
primarily a severe wind and large hail threat as they move eastward
through WW #153 into the evening.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar imagery shows several areas of strong to
severe thunderstorms ongoing across portions of WW #153. The
greatest concentration of stronger storms is currently located
across portions of central New Mexico -- where mesoanalysis suggests
500-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE coupled with effective bulk shear values in
excess of 40 knots. This activity has remained relatively isolated
from neighboring convection, which has lead to persistent
supercellular structures. Once such supercell is currently located
in Socorro/Valencia county New Mexico, and is exhibiting a bounded
weak echo signature in radar, which is indicative of a very strong
updraft. This is further supported by MRMS MESH, which suggests some
potential for very large hail (e.g., in excess of 2 inches). While
an isolated tornado can not be entirely ruled out, the primary
threats with the strongest storms are severe wind gusts and large
hail.

To the south, thunderstorm mode becomes more linear with an
eastward-moving cluster of thunderstorms that will soon enter
portions of far West Texas from Mexico. While isolated severe hail
is possible with this activity, the primary threat may transition to
severe wind gusts as the cluster continues to grow upscale. This
activity may congeal with the isolated supercells over New Mexico
into a forward propagating MCS later this evening with a continued
risk of strong/severe wind gusts.

..Elliott.. 06/03/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

LAT...LON 35670766 35990723 35990617 35560517 34740445 30720312
29330376 29330406 29640449 30380483 30930550 31630640
31810726 33160780 34850812 35670766



------------=_1528062988-1857-9676
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII"
Content-Disposition: inline
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. ------------=_1528062988-1857-9676--

--- SBBSecho 3.04-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online - capitolcityonline.net (1:2320/105)