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ACUS11 KWNS 032049
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032049
MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-032145-

Mesoscale Discussion 0635
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0349 PM CDT Sun Jun 03 2018

Areas affected...Southeast Texas...southern and central
Louisiana...southern and central Mississippi

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 032049Z - 032145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...One persistent cluster of storms continues across central
Louisiana, while other scattered development continues along a cold
front near/south of the I-20 corridor from east Texas to
Mississippi. A WW is not currently expected with this activity,
although isolated damaging wind gusts and hail are possible with
convection across the area through this evening.

DISCUSSION...A persistent, yet mostly sub-severe cluster of storms
continues to expand across central Louisiana near/southeast of POE
currently. Other, more isolated thunderstorms have recently
developed in east-central Texas (near LFK) and in central
Mississippi (around 40 miles south of JAN). Another slowly
southward-moving cluster was located near MEI. These storms were
all within a weakly capped, yet strongly unstable environment, with
MUCAPE values exceeding 4000 J/kg along and and south of the front.
Additional convective development is anticipated through the
afternoon - especially near and west of ongoing convective clusters
where expanding near-surface cold pools will help force ascent and
overcome the lingering capping across the area. Lightly northerly
mid-level flow will aid in a south-southwestward propagation of
ongoing clusters through the evening. Damaging wind gusts and a few
instances of large hail will be likely near any storm given the
magnitude of instability.

Given recent trends and the isolated nature of the severe threat, a
Severe Thunderstorm Watch is not expected but cannot be completely
ruled out - particularly in southwestern Louisiana and far southeast
Texas if the ongoing cluster exhibits greater upscale growth and
severity than currently anticipated.

..Cook/Guyer.. 06/03/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...

LAT...LON 31079575 31349521 31319461 31359353 31459240 31699094
32168940 32168873 31798852 31008844 30588870 29828979
29419039 29419118 29449150 29289264 29109464 29269515
30029559 31079575



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