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ACUS11 KWNS 031802
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031802
NMZ000-TXZ000-032000-

Mesoscale Discussion 0633
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0102 PM CDT Sun Jun 03 2018

Areas affected...parts of western and central New Mexico and into
far West Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 031802Z - 032000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Severe risk is expected to continue increasing across
portions of New Mexico and far West Texas over the next few hours.
WW will likely be needed.

DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery and radar loops show
convection increasing at this time over parts of western New Mexico,
as ascent associated with the Four-Corners-area vort max overspreads
this area.

Strong diurnal heating across this region has helped boost
mixed-layer CAPE, with near 500 J/kg values in northwest New Mexico
increasing to near 2000 J/kg over south-central New Mexico and far
West Texas, where greater boundary-layer dewpoints are observed.
Continued heating/destabilization and existing large-scale ascent
suggests continued convective increase over the next several hours.

Along with ample CAPE, moderately strong southwesterly mid-level
flow is indicated atop the area per area VWPs -- contributing to veering/increasing winds with height supportive of
organized/rotating storms. CAM runs suggest isolated storm mode
initially, with eventual upscale growth later this afternoon and
evening into one or more eastward-moving MCSs. While resulting
severe risk would likely trend toward primarily wind damaging in
this scenario, the initial/more cellular storms will likely prove
capable of producing hail, in addition to locally damaging winds. A
tornado or two may also occur with initial/rotating storm mode.

..Goss/Guyer.. 06/03/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

LAT...LON 31730674 33790847 35360882 36520896 36870769 36650551
35000524 32900525 31330482 30870499 30850534 31350594
31450615 31730642 31730674



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