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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0631

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sunday, June 03, 2018 06:33:21
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    ACUS11 KWNS 030633
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 030632
    ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-030830-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0631
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0132 AM CDT Sun Jun 03 2018

    Areas affected...southeast Arkansas...Mississippi...and far western
    Alabama

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

    Valid 030632Z - 030830Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Organized cluster of thunderstorms across far eastern
    Arkansas and northern Mississippi will continue to quickly move south-southeast. Strong, gusty winds will be possible with this
    cluster for the next few hours.

    DISCUSSION...Long-lived thunderstorm cluster, with history of
    producing wind damage, is moving quickly south-southeast across far
    eastern Arkansas and northwest Mississippi. Radar inspection of this thunderstorm cluster suggests it has developed internal
    structure/organization, including rear-inflow jet, supportive
    potentially strong surface winds for at least the next few hours.
    Extrapolation of current storm motions/trends suggests this
    thunderstorm complex will arrive in the I-20 corridor in the next
    2-3 hours. Additionally, thunderstorm intensity has increased with
    a thunderstorm/thunderstorm cluster across northeast Mississippi.
    00Z JAN sounding, along with recent mesoanalysis data, suggests
    effective bulk shear around 30 knots and a sufficient CAPE reservoir
    to maintain ongoing thunderstorms.

    Biggest question regarding severe potential centers around the
    thunderstorm clusters' ability to bring the strong winds downward
    through an increasingly stable nocturnal boundary layer. An
    increasingly hostile low-level environment (such as decreasing
    low-level lapse rates, increasing convective inhibition) should
    decrease the ability to mix down strong winds. However, the ability
    of current thunderstorms to produce wind damage suggests the ability
    to overcome this detriment and a severe thunderstorm watch is
    currently being considered.

    ..Marsh/Edwards.. 06/03/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BMX...MEG...JAN...LZK...

    LAT...LON 33509128 34379106 34988895 33828800 32818840 32159015
    32809111 33509128



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