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ACUS11 KWNS 280132
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280131
NEZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-280330-

Mesoscale Discussion 0548
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0831 PM CDT Sun May 27 2018

Areas affected...Western and central South Dakota...eastern Wyoming...southwestern Nebraska and Nebraska Panhandle

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 123...125...126...

Valid 280131Z - 280330Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 123, 125,
126 continues.

SUMMARY...Damaging wind gusts will continue to be the primary threat
this evening with an isolated large hail risk. A local extension in
time of WW 123 may be needed in the western Nebraska Panhandle.

DISCUSSION...Storms ongoing from eastern Wyoming into
western/central Nebraska have generally become more linear over the
past two hours. 00Z soundings from LBF and UNR both show steep
mid-level lapse rates in place ahead of this activity. KLNX VAD
profile shows around 40 kts of deep-layer shear which is in
agreement with RAP analysis showing 30-40 kts of effective bulk
shear in northeast Colorado and 45-50 kts in northwest Nebraska into
western South Dakota. A continued threat for damaging wind gusts
will exist for at least the next few hours while the boundary layer
is cooling and surface-based CIN is increasing. However, shear
values are sufficient for continued storm organization and MUCAPE
values are still ample at 1000-4000 J/kg. A local extension in time
of WW 123 may be needed for an hour or two in the western Nebraska
Panhandle for the ongoing severe threat.

..Wendt/Gleason.. 05/28/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON 43860560 44520537 44830478 45030275 45060136 44820047
44340016 43560000 43289987 42400005 41340022 40420057
40370122 40550186 41250265 41580378 42070410 43000468
43360556 43860560



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