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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0546

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sunday, May 27, 2018 23:06:54
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    ACUS11 KWNS 272306
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 272306
    SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-280030-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0546
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0606 PM CDT Sun May 27 2018

    Areas affected...Western and central South Dakota...Northeastern
    Wyoming

    Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely

    Valid 272306Z - 280030Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

    SUMMARY...Ongoing convection northern/eastern Wyoming will move into
    the area with possible new development ahead of that activity. A
    severe wind threat will be possible with any storms. An isolated
    hail threat is also possible. Severe thunderstorm watch issuance is
    expected within the next hour.

    DISCUSSION...Ongoing convection to the south and southwest of the
    discussion area is expected to move into northeastern Wyoming and
    western South Dakota within the next few hours. New development is
    also possible ahead of the ongoing storms with surface analysis
    showing a front between Chadron, NE and Alliance, NE. RAP analysis
    shows MUCAPE values from 2000-4000 J/kg along with 30-35 kts of
    effective bulk shear mainly in western South Dakota and diminishing
    values to the west. Storms that develop in or move into the area
    will pose a damaging wind threat with the likely storm mode being
    linear. However, an isolated hail threat will also exist.

    ..Wendt/Gleason/Grams.. 05/27/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW...

    LAT...LON 43190448 43720592 44490612 45160448 45680312 45770132
    45589962 45209896 44399898 43599936 43099975 43100069
    43110139 43040316 43110391 43190448



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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sunday, May 05, 2019 22:31:02
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 052230
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 052230
    OKZ000-KSZ000-052330-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0546
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0530 PM CDT Sun May 05 2019

    Areas affected...northwest through north central Oklahoma into south
    central Kansas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

    Valid 052230Z - 052330Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...North central Oklahoma through south central Kansas are
    being monitored for thunderstorm initiation within the next hour or
    so. Otherwise severe storms may develop southeast into northwest
    Oklahoma during early to mid evening. Large hail and damaging wind
    are the main threats, but isolated tornadoes will also be possible.
    A WW will likely be needed within an hour.

    DISCUSSION...Late this afternoon cumulus continues to deepen along
    convergence bands located from north central OK through south
    central KS. The 21Z Lamont RAOB indicated only a modest capping
    inversion, strong instability (1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) and 47 kt 0-6
    km shear supportive of supercells capable of producing very large
    hail as the initial threat. However, as the low-level jet
    strengthens, 0-1 km hodographs will become sufficient for a threat
    of low-level mesocyclones and possibly isolated tornadoes, at least
    within a small 1-2 hour window. Otherwise, storms developing over
    southwest KS and the TX Panhandle may move into northwest OK this
    evening with both supercell and linear modes possible.

    ..Dial/Grams.. 05/05/2019

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...

    LAT...LON 36799976 36839875 37049847 37679840 37879763 37019720
    35779819 35509967 36799976



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