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ACUS11 KWNS 272243
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272242
NEZ000-SDZ000-WYZ000-280015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0545
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0542 PM CDT Sun May 27 2018

Areas affected...Central/Eastern Wyoming into Neb Panhandle

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 123...

Valid 272242Z - 280015Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 123
continues.

SUMMARY...The potential for large hail, locally damaging winds and a
couple of tornadoes will continue especially across
east-central/southeast Wyoming in the general vicinity of I-25
through 00Z.

DISCUSSION...Multiple semi-discrete intense supercells with a
history of tornadoes continue to slowly progress east-northeastward
near I-25 in areas just north of Cheyenne as well as farther north
in Platte County. A tornado risk will continue with these cyclic
supercells in the short term owing to a persistent moist/easterly
upslope environment in conjunction with modest hodograph curvature.
That said, it seems likely that the tornado risk may be at its peak
owing to an increasing number of storms and potential for updraft
interference, in addition to an increasingly detrimental influence
of drier air now noted across far southeast Wyoming/southern
Nebraska Panhandle beneath anvils to the south. Even while the
tornado risk is likely near or past its peak, bouts of large hail
and locally damaging winds will be a concern as storms tend to merge
and grow upscale as they spread east-northeastward.

..Guyer.. 05/27/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...RIW...

LAT...LON 41140537 42290561 42490667 43150691 43500530 43540407
42980297 41550270 41120315 41140537



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ACUS11 KWNS 052201
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052201
IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-052330-

Mesoscale Discussion 0545
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0501 PM CDT Sun May 05 2019

Areas affected...Southeastern Nebraska and northeast Kansas.

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 131...

Valid 052201Z - 052330Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 131
continues.

SUMMARY...A cluster of supercells in southeastern Nebraska are
producing large to potentially very large hail. This threat is
expected to continue into the evening as these storms drift
southward along a slow moving cold front.

DISCUSSION...Several supercells in southeast Nebraska have been
producing large hail for the past few hours. The westernmost
supercell in Hamilton county Nebraska has produced multiple golf
ball sized hail reports and latest MESH trends suggest hail in
excess of 2 inches may be possible. Expect the westernmost storm in
this cluster to continue to pose the greatest severe threat due to
the higher instability (2000 J/kg MLCAPE per RAP mesoanalysis).
Current effective shear is around 30 to 35 knots per RAP
mesoanalysis and UEX/OAX VWP, however, mid-level winds are expected
to increase through the evening which will further support supercell organization. In addition, a low-level jet is expected to increase
somewhat during the late evening and early overnight hours which,
combined with maintenance due to the dynamic pressure perturbations
of the rotating updrafts, will support a severe threat continuing
after dark, possibly into northeast Kansas.

Additional storm development is possible along the cold front in
western portions of watch 131. Cumulus have become more numerous
along the line in the last hour and low-level moisture advection
into this area will lead to continued destabilization along the
boundary.

Very steep mid-level lapse rates (9.3 C/km per 12Z LBF RAOB) will
continue to support very large hail with the strongest updrafts,
especially in the western half of watch 131 where destabilization is
greatest.

..Bentley.. 05/05/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...GLD...

LAT...LON 41249859 41409797 41449722 41409663 41259593 40639574
40049548 39769566 39649710 39789846 39889904 39889958
39919986 40059995 40349997 40809937 41249859



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