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ACUS11 KWNS 272026
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272025
COZ000-WYZ000-272230-

Mesoscale Discussion 0542
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0325 PM CDT Sun May 27 2018

Areas affected...Central into southeast Wyoming

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 123...

Valid 272025Z - 272230Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 123
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe hail, wind, and brief tornadoes all remain possible
within the watch area.

DISCUSSION...Scattered severe storms now stretch from near Riverton
WY southeastward into north-central CO, with several supercells
observed by radar. Some of these cells likely contain large hail,
and a brief tornado cannot be ruled out with the cellular activity.
The propensity for rotation may also enhance damaging wind
potential. With time, some of these storms may produce enough
outflow to become linear as they propagate northward. An increase in
storm coverage should persist for several hours, especially into
southeast WY where instability is greatest. Here, significant hail
in excess of 2.00" is possible, in addition to an isolated tornado
threat.

..Jewell.. 05/27/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS...RIW...

LAT...LON 41850780 42870907 43310881 43500728 43330616 42830512
41930411 41370405 40950440 40700495 40690569 40890616
41850780



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ACUS11 KWNS 052001
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052001
TXZ000-OKZ000-052200-

Mesoscale Discussion 0542
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0301 PM CDT Sun May 05 2019

Areas affected...TX/OK Panhandles into the TX South Plains

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 052001Z - 052200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Area is being monitored for supercell development. The
initial threat will be very large hail, with some increase in the
tornado threat possible toward evening. Watch issuance is possible
by 21-22Z.

DISCUSSION...A thunderstorm has recently developed across the far
western OK Panhandle, with additional towering cumulus noted further
south to the west of Lubbock. The short-term convective evolution is
uncertain, due to a rather nebulous surface pattern with limited
surface convergence noted as of 20Z. However, continued heating/deep
mixing should eventually remove the remaining MLCINH across the
region and lead to at least widely scattered thunderstorm
development.

As MLCINH is removed and MLCAPE increases into the 2000-3000 J/kg
range later this afternoon, and effective shear remains in the 35-45
kt range, the environment will become supportive of supercell
development. Very large hail will be the initial threat, given steep
midlevel lapse rates and relatively cold temperatures aloft. Toward
evening, as convection moves into a region of somewhat richer
boundary-layer moisture and some increase in the low-level jet
occurs, the tornado threat may increase somewhat from the eastern
Panhandles into northwest TX.

While coverage of storms remains somewhat uncertain, especially in
the short term, watch issuance is possible given the potential for
multiple supercells across the region.

..Dean/Guyer.. 05/05/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON 33060296 35310293 36890285 36930120 36960023 34860006
33150039 33040068 33030114 33020214 33060296



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