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ACUS11 KWNS 200027
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200027
NMZ000-TXZ000-200300-

Mesoscale Discussion 0278
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0727 PM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

Areas affected...Portions of southern NM into far west TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 200027Z - 200300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A very isolated hail/wind risk may exist through this
evening. Watch issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Low-level moisture remains limited early this evening
across southern NM into far west TX, with surface dewpoints no
greater than mid to upper 30s. The 00Z sounding from El Paso, TX
shows a very deeply mixed boundary layer with MUCAPE around 650
J/kg. A veering and strengthening wind profile through mid-levels
and related effective bulk shear around 45-50 kt will support
updraft organization with any thunderstorms that form/move into
southern NM and far west TX. At this time, thunderstorm coverage is
expected to remain isolated at best, with the best chance for
convection forming across the higher terrain of northern Mexico and
moving just across the international border over the next several
hours. Given the deeply mixed boundary layer, strong/gusty downdraft
winds will be possible, along with some hail. Watch issuance is not
expected due to the overall isolated nature of the severe risk.

..Gleason/Thompson.. 04/20/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EPZ...

LAT...LON 31640651 32140685 32470695 32680683 32730656 32430600
31540529 31100500 30700495 30570513 30710536 31120584
31640651



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ACUS11 KWNS 071728
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071727
LAZ000-MSZ000-TXZ000-071900-

Mesoscale Discussion 0278
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1227 PM CDT Sun Apr 07 2019

Areas affected...Far Southeast TX...Northern/Central/Western LA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 071727Z - 071900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...The severe threat is expected to continue outside of
Severe Thunderstorm Watch 44 and a downstream watch will be needed
by 1830Z.

DISCUSSION...Current storm motion on the convective line moving
through southeast TX is 220 degrees at 40 kt. At this speed, the
line will reach the edge of WW 41 around 1830Z/19Z. Downstream air
mass is characterized by temperatures in the upper 70s, dewpoints in
the low 70s, and moderate to strong instability (i.e. MLCAPE around
2000-2500 J/kg). Expectation is for the severe threat to continue
across this area as the line moves through and a downstream watch
across far southeast TX and central/western LA will be needed by
around 1830Z. Primary severe threat with the convective line is
damaging wind gusts, although some hail and a brief tornado or two
are also possible.

Farther north, strong thunderstorms have developed within the
warm-air advection regime near the stalled front. Updrafts in these
storms may occasionally be strong enough to produce severe hail.
This threat may merit including this area in the watch that will
likely be issued by 1830Z.

..Mosier/Hart.. 04/07/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...

LAT...LON 29699299 29609392 29869451 30409482 31209501 32039461
32479409 32929299 32859204 32609161 32119145 31299147
30699174 30029247 29699299



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