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ACUS11 KWNS 271838
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271838
KSZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-272115-

Mesoscale Discussion 0540
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0138 PM CDT Sun May 27 2018

Areas affected...Eastern Colorado into western Kansas...and the
Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 271838Z - 272115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Large hail and damaging wind are quite likely this
afternoon across eastern Colorado into western Kansas, and southward
into the Texas Panhandle.

DISCUSSION...Strong heating continues across the High Plains near a
lee trough, and in advance of a belt of stronger midlevel flow with
the upper trough to the west. Low-level winds will continue to
strengthen and back to southeasterly, enhancing the westward
transport of moisture and gradual upslope. Forecast soundings show
very steep lapse rates developing through a deep layer, and this
combined with peak heating will aid updraft acceleration. While flow
aloft is not particularly strong, the veering of the winds with
height is creating long hodographs clearly supportive of severe
storms. A mixed storm mode of cells and possible squall line is
expected, with capable of damaging wind-driven hail. Capping will
become a concern into the evening, with an abrupt decrease in
intensity expected around the longitude of 100 W.

..Jewell/Hart.. 05/27/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...

LAT...LON 39820375 39080342 38330308 37180266 36330248 35730234
35120199 34890174 34890164 34930121 35330072 36220024
37070007 37710012 39060068 39820139 40710246 40780303
40460351 39820375



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ACUS11 KWNS 051835
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051835
IAZ000-NEZ000-052100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0540
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0135 PM CDT Sun May 05 2019

Areas affected...Central/eastern NE...Western/central IA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 051835Z - 052100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...An increase in thunderstorm coverage is expected later
this afternoon, with a threat of isolated severe hail and wind.

DISCUSSION...Elevated convection has been ongoing across northeast
NE since this morning north of a cold front, with more intense
storms recently noted closer to the frontal boundary across northern
IA. Meanwhile gradually increasing cumulus is noted along the
surface boundary from eastern NE into central IA.

Despite limited low-level moisture, cold temperatures aloft (-16C to
-20C at 500 mb) and steep midlevel lapse rates are supporting MLCAPE
of 500-1250 J/kg per recent mesoanalyses as temperatures warm into
the 70s south of the front. Ongoing slightly elevated convection
will capable of producing isolated severe hail in the short term,
though storms should remain relatively disorganized given marginal
effective shear less than 30 kt. With time, somewhat more organized
convection may develop along the frontal boundary, with a continued
threat of isolated severe hail. Steep low-level lapse rates where
deep mixing occurs south of the cold front may also support isolated
severe wind gusts, though generally weak low-level flow should
mitigate this threat to some extent.

The eventual need for a watch remains uncertain due to the
relatively limited magnitude of the threat, though watch issuance
for some portion of this area is possible later this afternoon as
additional storms develop along the cold front.

..Dean/Guyer.. 05/05/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...

LAT...LON 41099930 41649742 42259548 42519456 43069257 42029205
41449382 40939567 40679677 40589789 40509917 41099930



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