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ACUS11 KWNS 271730
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271729
MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-272000-

Mesoscale Discussion 0538
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 PM CDT Sun May 27 2018

Areas affected...Portions of central/northern
Virginia...central/southern Maryland...and Eastern West Virginia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 271729Z - 272000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will increase in coverage this afternoon
with locally severe hail and damaging wind gusts possible. A WW
issuance is unlikely.

DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite and radar imagery from 1730Z
shows thunderstorms developing over the higher terrain of the
Appalachians/Blue Ridge Mountains as well as along a backdoor cold
front across northern/northeastern Maryland. Ample insolation
through the morning and early afternoon coupled with a moist
boundary layer (e.g., surface dew points in the 70s) has allowed
MLCAPE values to climb to around 1500-2000 J/kg. While mid-level
flow is relatively modest (e.g., 30 knots at 500 mb), the presence
of a nearby weak mid-level trough will foster effective bulk shear
values of 20-35 knots (greatest over Maryland). While CAM guidance
suggests messy storm modes, CAPE/Shear parameter space will support
at least transient storm organization with the potential for locally
severe hail and damaging wind gusts in the strongest storms.
However, these threats are currently expected to remain too isolated
for a WW issuance.

..Elliott/Hart.. 05/27/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RNK...

LAT...LON 37727964 38287934 38887895 39277867 39507834 39647787
39657731 39677688 39657622 39117613 38857606 38477602
38117602 37817611 37517624 37337657 37147866 37727964



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ACUS11 KWNS 051600
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051559
FLZ000-GAZ000-051800-

Mesoscale Discussion 0538
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1059 AM CDT Sun May 05 2019

Areas affected...portions of northern and central Florida

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 051559Z - 051800Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Limited risk for damaging wind gusts locally will continue
into this afternoon across parts of Florida. Given the limited
risk, a watch is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a band of strong storms moving
across northern Florida, with some embedded complex structures/areas
of circulation. The background environment across the northern half
of the Peninsula is characterized by a moist/unstable airmass, per
surface observations in conjunction with morning RAOBs, along with
moderate west-southwesterly flow aloft. The CAPE/shear combination
will continue to support a few stronger cells, with locally
gusty/damaging winds possible with the strongest updrafts. Along
with the ongoing band of storms crossing northern Florida, a
second/weaker bowing band of cells off the west-central Florida
coast could increase a bit as it encounters the diurnally
destabilizing inland boundary layer.

At this time, the expected isolated and low-end nature of the risk
suggests that a watch will not be required.

..Goss/Guyer.. 05/05/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...

LAT...LON 30768142 29698097 28878056 27688076 27398127 27148231
27458294 28338314 29288228 29988212 30768142



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