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ACUS11 KWNS 140100
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140100
MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-140330-

Mesoscale Discussion 0405
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 PM CDT Sun May 13 2018

Areas affected...Northern KS...Southeast NE...Northwest MO

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 140100Z - 140330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Convection is expected to increase this evening, with the
strongest cells capable of isolated severe hail.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have rapidly intensified to the southwest
of KHYS over the last 30 hour, to the north of ongoing activity
across southwest KS and just to the south of a surface cold front.
Additional strong convection has recently developed over far
southeast NE, to the north of a weak surface boundary. An increasing
low-level jet will likely result in an increase in convection this
evening, with at least isolated instances of large hail possible
given very steep lapse rates, large buoyancy, and marginally
supportive effective shear of 25-35 kt, as noted in regional 00Z
soundings.

The need for watch issuance is uncertain at this time, given that
the primary severe threat in this regime is expected to be in the
short term, between the southernmost surface boundary and primary
cold front approaching from the north, where near-surface-based
updrafts are possible. Elevated convection will likely continue into
the late evening, but increasingly unfavorable storm modes will
likely tend to limit the hail risk overnight.

..Dean/Guyer.. 05/14/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON 39119967 39349970 39819944 40119843 40459685 40539540
40549475 40219439 39779422 39389427 39089530 38919628
38789715 38689857 39119967



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ACUS11 KWNS 191740
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191740
VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-WVZ000-191945-

Mesoscale Discussion 0405
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1240 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2019

Areas affected...Portions of southwest VA into western NC and
northern SC

Concerning...Tornado Watch 88...

Valid 191740Z - 191945Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 88 continues.

SUMMARY...Severe threat continues across Tornado Watch 88. Damaging
wind gusts and isolated tornadoes will be possible with the more
organized, long-lived storms.

DISCUSSION...The surface low across eastern TN continues to
translate northeast as it deepens, fostering an intensification of
the low-level wind field and associated low-level shear across
Tornado Watch 088. Continued northward advection of warm, moist air
into the region is fostering a gradual increase in instability, with
up to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE noted across southeastern portions of the
watch. As the mid-level trough continues to approach from the west,
increasing deep-layer ascent is expected to contribute to an uptick
in convection in the next few hours.

Latest high-resolution model guidance suggests that convection will
remain semi-discrete in nature. The more intense cells will be
capable of producing damaging wind gusts. A few tornadoes are also
possible with storms that can sustain strong low-level rotation.

..Squitieri/Thompson.. 04/19/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...CAE...GSP...

LAT...LON 34508252 37678045 37657829 34528041 34508252



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