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ACUS11 KWNS 010548
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010548
IAZ000-NEZ000-010745-

Mesoscale Discussion 0972
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1248 AM CDT Sun Jul 01 2018

Areas affected...Southeast and east-central NE to adjacent extreme
west-central IA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 010548Z - 010745Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Strong/damaging wind gusts will pose a severe-weather
threat across southeast into east-central Nebraska through 1-2 AM
CDT, and could move into adjacent extreme west-central Iowa by 2 AM
CDT, in vicinity of the Omaha and Council Bluffs areas. Limited
spatial extent should preclude the need for a watch.

DISCUSSION...Trends in mosaic radar imagery during the early
overnight indicated some acceleration of a forward-propagating line
of storms moving into southeast and east-central NE at 0530Z, with
the line extending from near KOLU to the NE/KS border at
approximately 30 NNE KCNK. The air mass immediately downstream has
undergone some destabilization during the last 1-2 hours with rising
surface temperatures a degree or two. The passage of this line of
storms at the Hastings NWS radar showed a well-defined strong rear
inflow jet (50+ kt at 1-2 km agl). This jet combined with a 30-40
kt southwesterly low-level jet nosing into eastern NE/western IA
will sustain modest instability and a favorable environment for
continued fast storm motion with this line of storms during the next
2-3 hours. The greatest severe-weather threat should be into the
OMA/Council Bluffs area, as this portion of the line of storms has
recently accelerated to 45-50 kt, and is tending to favor the
easterly low-level wind component near a surface boundary.

..Peters/Guyer.. 07/01/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX...

LAT...LON 40119735 40989711 41609729 41829685 41949581 41839537
41509523 40899550 40679587 40349608 40069618 40019690
40119735



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