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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0871

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, June 25, 2018 02:49:59
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 250249
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 250249
    KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-250415-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0871
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0949 PM CDT Sun Jun 24 2018

    Areas affected...Northeast New Mexico...Texas and Oklahoma
    Panhandles...south central Kansas and western Oklahoma

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 215...

    Valid 250249Z - 250415Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 215
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Storms posing a risk for damaging wind and large hail will
    develop through the remainder of WW 215 tonight. A new WW will
    likely be proposed soon for western Oklahoma.

    DISCUSSION...Cold front continues to surge south through the moderately-strongly unstable environment (2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE)
    across the southern High Plains. This boundary currently extends
    from north central KS through southwest KS into the central TX
    Panhandle and northeast NM. The 00Z RAOB data indicated a strong
    capping inversion in the pre-frontal warm sector. As a result storms
    have only been able to initiate within the zone of strong mesoscale
    frontal forcing as well as in the evolving upslope regime in post
    frontal region across northeast NM. Strong effective bulk shear in
    vicinity of front will continue to support organized storms
    including bowing segments and some supercell structures. Storms will
    cross into northwest OK by 0330Z, so another WW will likely be
    needed soon for that area.

    ..Dial.. 06/25/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...ABQ...

    LAT...LON 35600322 36430385 36820095 38039902 37719844 36059839
    35249881 35189959 35600322



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