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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0869

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, June 25, 2018 00:48:57
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 250048
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 250048
    ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-250245-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0869
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0748 PM CDT Sun Jun 24 2018

    Areas affected...Southwest/central Arkansas...far northeast
    Texas...northern Louisiana

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 214...

    Valid 250048Z - 250245Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 214
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Storms ongoing on WW 214 have generally waned over the
    last couple hours. A threat for an isolated severe wind gust remains
    for any of the strongest cells that develop on the gust front of the
    MCS. Given the convective trends and increasingly isolated nature of
    the severe threat, an additional WW is not likely.

    DISCUSSION...Storms have continued to move southeast across WW 214.
    Latest 1 km radar mosaic shows a surging gust front with continued
    new development along the front edge. SHV, LZK, and JAN soundings do
    show 1500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE; however, with cooling of the boundary
    layer, storm intensity should decrease. Furthermore, effective
    deep-layer shear out of the aforementioned soundings is quite weak
    -- 10-20 kts -- and should limit further storm organization. A few
    more intense cells are possible and with those cells will come an
    attendant threat for an isolated severe wind gust. Given the
    expected convective trends and limited coverage of the severe
    threat, an additional WW is not anticipated for downstream
    locations.

    ..Wendt.. 06/25/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...

    LAT...LON 32919497 33099506 33399523 33929509 34249444 34729377
    34969342 35089297 34999252 34839215 34579178 33819181
    33339178 33089194 32959225 32919265 32739470 32919497



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