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ACUS11 KWNS 242251
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242250
TXZ000-250045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0866
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0550 PM CDT Sun Jun 24 2018

Areas affected...west Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 242250Z - 250045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated storms are developing over west Texas and may
pose a risk for large hail and downburst winds. Storm coverage is
expected to remain sparse. As a result a WW will probably not be
needed, but trends will continue to be monitored.

DISCUSSION...Early this evening Isolated storms are in the process
of developing across west TX between Fort Stockton and Snyder where
deep mixing with temperatures exceeding 100 F is occurring in
vicinity of the dryline. Vertical shear is weak, but steep lapse
rates, inverted-V boundary layers and moderate instability will
support a risk for downburst winds and hail. Storms appear diurnally
driven and should begin a weakening trend after sunset. Due to the
expected short duration and very isolated coverage, a WW will
probably not be needed.

..Dial/Grams.. 06/24/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON 33320105 33590061 33160015 32520040 31860091 31340144
30830220 31020260 31910184 32810116 33320105



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