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ACUS11 KWNS 242232
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242231
KSZ000-COZ000-250000-

Mesoscale Discussion 0865
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0531 PM CDT Sun Jun 24 2018

Areas affected...east central through southeast Colorado and
northwest Kansas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 213...

Valid 242231Z - 250000Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 213
continues.

SUMMARY...Storms will continue to pose a threat for damaging wind
and large hail as they move southeast through east central and
southeast Colorado next couple hours. Strong storms are beginning to
affect a small part of northwest KS. A new WW might be needed over a
portion of western KS this evening, but for now trends continue to
be monitored.

DISCUSSION...Storms are developing within zone of strong frontal
forcing across east central CO. This boundary will continue
southeast where partial recovery of the airmass that was overturned
by last night's storms has occurred, with latest objective analysis
indicating 1500 J/kg MLCAPE. A mid-upper jet streak within base of a progressive shortwave trough is contributing to sufficient vertical
shear for embedded organized structures including supercells and
bowing segments. Storms are expected to remain organized as they
move through the remainder of southeast CO.

Farther east across KS, a remnant outflow boundary extends from
northern KS from near Hays to near Goodland where it intersects the southeast-advancing cold front. Storms will eventually spread east
into a portion of western KS during the next couple hours where
sufficient recovery appears to have occurred south of the outflow
boundary to support at least a modest threat for isolated severe
storms.

..Dial/Grams.. 06/24/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...

LAT...LON 39090225 39550149 39110079 38600135 38160230 37900390
38380391 39090225



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