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ACUS11 KWNS 242028
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242028
IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-242130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0861
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0328 PM CDT Sun Jun 24 2018

Areas affected...Portions of the Missouri Valley

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 242028Z - 242130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A few thunderstorms could pose a localized risk for gusty,
damaging winds and marginally severe hail. Watch issuance is not
expected.

DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms have organized along a
northwest-southeast stationary front over Iowa this afternoon, and
other cells have formed near a weak surface low in eastern Nebraska.
Given plentiful surface heating and rich boundary-layer moisture,
MLCAPE values have risen to around 2000 J/kg, supporting several
stronger updrafts. However, weak low/mid-level flow will likely keep
storm modes as disorganized/merging multicells. In turn, propagation
will be driven by merging cold pools, which will locally enhance the
damaging wind potential. Strong anvil-layer storm-relative flow
could offer brief potential for marginally severe hail as well.
Nonetheless, watch issuance is not expected.

..Picca/Thompson.. 06/24/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...GID...

LAT...LON 41009295 42719425 42879552 42409731 41599754 39989631
39909499 40089391 40469287 40869276 41009295



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