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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0860

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sunday, June 24, 2018 20:04:58
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    ACUS11 KWNS 242004
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 242004
    OKZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-242130-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0860
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0304 PM CDT Sun Jun 24 2018

    Areas affected...Portions of the southern High Plains

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

    Valid 242004Z - 242130Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop southward along the
    higher terrain of Colorado and then move east/southeast over the
    High Plains into this evening. While the spatial extent of any
    severe threat is uncertain, a few storms may be accompanied by large
    hail and damaging winds. A watch could be needed by late afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...Considerable uncertainty remains due to the influence
    of processed low-level air behind a convective system now over
    Oklahoma. Still, convection appears to gradually be organizing over
    the higher terrain of southern Colorado, aided by a shortwave trough
    pivoting southeast over the region. Further heating to the east and
    slow moistening/cooling aloft in association with the trough may be
    adequate to drive isolated severe convection moving east/southeast
    over the High Plains into this evening. Deep-layer profiles favor
    supercells, and 8-9 C/km mid-level lapse rates suggest large hail
    would be the predominant threat. Although this threat is conditional
    (and perhaps limited in eastward extent due to prior
    convective/outflow influence), it could necessitate a Severe
    Thunderstorm Watch.

    ..Picca/Thompson.. 06/24/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

    LAT...LON 36630486 36890508 37940513 38480496 38470404 38430264
    37900221 37320213 36870217 36480238 36460402 36630486



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