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ACUS11 KWNS 241852
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241851
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-242015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0859
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0151 PM CDT Sun Jun 24 2018

Areas affected...Portions of the central High Plains

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 241851Z - 242015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A few storms may be capable of isolated large hail and
damaging winds this afternoon. The severe threat should remain too
sparse for watch issuance, though.

DISCUSSION...Aided by forcing for ascent ahead of a mid/upper
trough, scattered thunderstorms have developed across parts of
Colorado, Kansas, and Nebraska this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse
rates and pockets of surface heating are driving MLCAPE around
500-1000 J/kg at present. Combined with mid-level southwesterly flow
around 40-50 kt, this thermodynamic environment may support a few
multicells or supercells, accompanied by an isolated large hail and
damaging wind risk. However, prior convective overturning and
continued cloud cover over much of the region, as well as a decrease
in mid-level flow with northeastward extent, should spatially limit
this already marginal risk. In turn, watch issuance is not currently anticipated.

..Picca/Thompson.. 06/24/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON 39820481 40390481 40790409 42240189 42400064 42320009
42079965 41329989 40580065 39690196 39630212 39340406
39460464 39820481



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