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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0858

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sunday, June 24, 2018 18:05:26
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 241805
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 241804
    MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-242000-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0858
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0104 PM CDT Sun Jun 24 2018

    Areas affected...portions of central and northern VA into MD

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 241804Z - 242000Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Sporadic strong wind gusts are possible through the
    afternoon across parts of central and northern VA into MD.

    DISCUSSION...Storms have slowly increased in intensity this
    afternoon as they shift east from higher terrain into a warmer, more
    unstable airmass across northern VA. The area is on the southern
    periphery of stronger midlevel flow associated with a shortwave
    impulse moving to PA. As a result, effective shear around 30-40 kt
    will allow for some organized convection, while unidirectional
    vertical wind profiles favors multicells/line segments. Midlevel
    lapse rates across the region remain poor, limiting hail concerns.
    However, fast storm motion and steepening low level lapse rates
    could result in sporadic strong/locally damaging wind gusts. Given
    the marginal nature of the threat, a watch is not anticipated this
    afternoon.

    ..Leitman/Thompson.. 06/24/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...

    LAT...LON 38597889 39047816 39187748 39187710 39107667 38907642
    38407630 37927627 37757649 37617700 37477826 37407879
    37567950 37857976 38147975 38357953 38597889



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