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ACUS11 KWNS 241007
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241006
ARZ000-OKZ000-241130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0854
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0506 AM CDT Sun Jun 24 2018

Areas affected...eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 210...

Valid 241006Z - 241130Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 210
continues.

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms capable of large hail and gusty outflow
winds will continue through the morning. As these storms move into
western Arkansas, a new watch may be necessary.

DISCUSSION...Long-lived bow echo continues to move across central
and northeast Oklahoma along the 850-millibar theta-e gradient,
which loosely corresponds to the most-unstable CAPE gradient. Given most-unstable CAPE values of 2000 J/kg and deep-layer shear on the
order of 40 knots ahead of the parent mesoscale convective systems
(MCS), and an even better CAPE reservoir to the southwest, all
indications are that the ongoing MCS will exit WW209 later this
morning.

Additionally, warm-air advection thunderstorms across east-central
and northeast Oklahoma continue to persist. Large hail and gusty
winds remain possible with these storms. On their current
trajectory, these storms will exit WW209 in the next 1-2 hours,
which will likely require a new watch.

..Marsh/Guyer.. 06/24/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...OUN...

LAT...LON 35619755 35699689 36029644 36539644 36309553 36059442
35729318 35149264 34679304 34539382 34519520 34659637
35039733 35619755



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ACUS11 KWNS 241011
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241011 COR
ARZ000-OKZ000-241130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0854
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0511 AM CDT Sun Jun 24 2018

Areas affected...eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 210...

Valid 241011Z - 241130Z

CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT WATCH NUMBER REFERENCED IN GRAPHIC AND TEXT

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 210
continues.

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms capable of large hail and gusty outflow
winds will continue through the morning. As these storms move into
western Arkansas, a new watch may be necessary.

DISCUSSION...Long-lived bow echo continues to move across central
and northeast Oklahoma along the 850-millibar theta-e gradient,
which loosely corresponds to the most-unstable CAPE gradient. Given most-unstable CAPE values of 2000 J/kg and deep-layer shear on the
order of 40 knots ahead of the parent mesoscale convective systems
(MCS), and an even better CAPE reservoir to the southwest, all
indications are that the ongoing MCS will exit WW210 later this
morning.

Additionally, warm-air advection thunderstorms across east-central
and northeast Oklahoma continue to persist. Large hail and gusty
winds remain possible with these storms. On their current
trajectory, these storms will exit WW210 in the next 1-2 hours,
which will likely require a new watch.

..Marsh/Guyer.. 06/24/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...OUN...

LAT...LON 35619755 35699689 36029644 36539644 36309553 36059442
35729318 35149264 34679304 34329394 34359485 34659637
35039733 35619755



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