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ACUS11 KWNS 240733
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240733
MSZ000-TNZ000-ARZ000-240900-

Mesoscale Discussion 0853
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0233 AM CDT Sun Jun 24 2018

Areas affected...east-central Arkansas...southwest Tennessee...and
northern Mississippi

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 240733Z - 240900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of large hail will
be possible through the morning. The limited spatial coverage of
thunderstorms should preclude the need for a watch.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are developing within a zone of
850-millibar theta-e advection. The overall environment in which the
storms are developing is characterized by most-unstable CAPE around
2000 J/kg and is on the southern fringes of a belt of deep-layer
shear around 30-40 knots. Although the overall environment will be
supportive of isolated supercell-like structures capable of large
hail, weak forcing and the overall limited coverage should preclude
the need for a watch.

..Marsh/Guyer.. 06/24/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...

LAT...LON 34659245 35129253 35759185 35829009 35748911 35468851
34618859 34358964 34429110 34659245



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