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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0851

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sunday, June 24, 2018 06:53:23
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 240653
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 240653
    TXZ000-240800-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0851
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0153 AM CDT Sun Jun 24 2018

    Areas affected...north-central Texas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 240653Z - 240800Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Strong, gusty winds and hail will be possible in and
    around thunderstorms for the next 1-2 hours.

    DISCUSSION...Elevated thunderstorms within the great Dallas-Fort
    Worth metro will have the potential to produce hail for the next few
    hours as they persist within an environment of 2000-3000 J/kg of
    most-unstable CAPE. This threat should not be particularly long
    lived given the region is just south of the better deep-layer shear. Additionally, warming cloud tops and overall radar trends of the
    parent mesoscale convective system (MCS) suggest an increasingly
    hostile environment for thunderstorm longevity.

    As the parent MCS continues to decay, subsidence and downward
    momentum transport within and near the decaying MCS across
    north-central Texas has resulted in heat bursts across the region.
    Areas in Stephens County, TX, currently warmed to 99F with a
    dewpoint of 44F as a result of one of these heat bursts. Given steep mid-level-lapse rates atop the cooling nocturnal boundary layer, any
    downward momentum transport will have the potential for additional
    heat bursts.

    ..Marsh/Guyer.. 06/24/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...

    LAT...LON 31699894 32999882 33169729 32919619 31669645 31699894



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