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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0773

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sunday, June 17, 2018 22:48:33
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 172248
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 172247
    SDZ000-NEZ000-180045-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0773
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0547 PM CDT Sun Jun 17 2018

    Areas affected...North central Nebraska...southeast South Dakota

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

    Valid 172247Z - 180045Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated severe possible within the next few hours.
    Convective trends will be monitored.

    DISCUSSION...Storms that have recently initiated in northeast
    portions of WW 0184 are moving towards the discussion area while
    also moving closer to a southward sagging boundary. Given favorable
    buoyancy and shear in the Blaine/Logan county area (refer to MCD
    0771 for more details), a localized, brief tornado threat may occur
    within the next 1-2 hours and will be handled by a local extension
    of WW 0184 by WFO LBF.

    Otherwise, storms initiating across northern Nebraska into southeast
    South Dakota will occur in an environment characterized by modest
    mid-level lapse rates (5.5-6 C/km) and 40 knots of effective bulk
    shear. As such, isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts will be
    possible with the more organized updrafts. Convective trends will be
    continue to be monitored for possible WW issuance.

    ..Squitieri/Elliott/Guyer.. 06/17/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...LBF...

    LAT...LON 41850063 42010058 42370002 42719947 43019881 43359833
    43629802 43889732 43819691 43549675 43259678 42919713
    42359836 42089880 41899921 41659988 41430070 41850063



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