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ACUS11 KWNS 172154
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172153
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-172330-

Mesoscale Discussion 0771
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0453 PM CDT Sun Jun 17 2018

Areas affected...Northeast Colorado...southwest Nebraska...far
northwest Kansas

Concerning...Tornado Watch 184...

Valid 172153Z - 172330Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 184 continues.

SUMMARY...Severe threat continues across Tornado Watch 0184. All
severe hazards remain possible.

DISCUSSION...A supercell with a history of producing tornadoes is
ongoing across Keith County, Nebraska and is expected to continue
traversing a southward moving boundary currently positioned from
roughly east of AKO to west of ONL. Ample buoyancy pooled along the
boundary coupled with sufficient low level shear (nearly 150 m2/s2
as sampled by 2130 UTC LNX VAD profiler data) suggests that the
threat for large hail, damaging wind gusts, and isolated tornadoes
will continue with this storm for the next few hours.

Initiation has also occurred in other portions of the watch, namely east-northeast Colorado and portions of southwest Nebraska. Ambient
effective bulk shear values over 50 knots and MLCAPE over 1000 J/kg
across much of the discussion area suggests that any storm that
matures may become severe, with large hail and damaging winds being
the predominant threats. Any storm that can interact with the
boundary in an uncontaminated airmass may pose a risk of an isolated
tornado.

..Squitieri/Elliott.. 06/17/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON 39600356 39970349 40480336 41030322 41500304 41790269
42050179 42180110 42210052 42050024 41910008 41570003
41170053 40620089 39920118 39460146 39290222 39310314
39600356



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