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ACUS11 KWNS 171905
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171905
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-172030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0767
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0205 PM CDT Sun Jun 17 2018

Areas affected...Northeast CO...Southwest NE...Far Northwest KS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 171905Z - 172030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...A few severe thunderstorms are expected later this
afternoon, with the potential for severe hail/wind and a couple of
tornadoes. Watch issuance is likely by 20Z.

DISCUSSION...Early this afternoon, convection was slowly increasing
across the higher terrain west of Denver, with building cumulus
noted near a surface low and attendant boundary across northeast
CO/southwest NE, and also near the Palmer Divide. The environment is characterized by relatively rich low-level moisture and generally
modest (at best) midlevel lapse rates, which will result in MLCAPE
of 1000-2000 J/kg by later this afternoon near and south of the
primary surface boundary. Sufficient midlevel southwesterly flow
will result in effective shear of 35-45 kt, sufficient for some
updraft organization/rotation.

While a few supercells and/or organized clusters appear possible,
there is some uncertainty regarding the magnitude of the severe
threat. Relatively modest midlevel lapse rates will likely only
support marginally severe hail, while the severe wind risk should
remain relatively isolated given the lack of stronger low-level
flow. However, there will be the potential for a couple of
tornadoes, especially with any supercells that traverse the richer
low-level vorticity environment near the surface low and associated
boundary from northeast CO into southwest NE. Given the high
confidence in the development of multiple organized storms, and at
least a modestly favorable environment, watch issuance is likely by
20Z.

..Dean/Grams.. 06/17/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON 39030412 40330370 41400216 41750109 41959992 41579928
40270041 39620206 39030412



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