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ACUS11 KWNS 171712
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171712
WIZ000-MIZ000-MNZ000-171845-

Mesoscale Discussion 0765
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1212 PM CDT Sun Jun 17 2018

Areas affected...Portions of Minnesota to the Upper Peninsula of
Michigan

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 171712Z - 171845Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered strong to severe storms will increase in
coverage early this afternoon, with an attendant threat of primarily
damaging winds. Isolated large hail and a couple tornadoes could be
possible as well. Watch issuance will likely be needed within the
next hour or so.

DISCUSSION...A couple bands of strong thunderstorms have organized
north of a stationary front extending from southwest Minnesota
towards the Arrowhead. Given the approach of a weak impulse over the
next several hours, storms should continue to increase in coverage
through early afternoon. Despite weak mid-level lapse rates,
warm/moist boundary-layer conditions are resulting in an
increasingly unstable environment near the front. The 12Z MPX
sounding, modified for current surface observations, suggests MLCAPE
around 1500 J/kg is already available, and this should increase
further through the afternoon.

Regional soundings and VWP data sampled relatively uni-directional
flow parallel to the front, such that upscale growth into several bows/lines/clusters is expected. In turn, as instability grows, a
scattered damaging wind threat will likely evolve eastward from
Minnesota into the Upper Peninsula. Convective evolution may temper
the hail/tornado threat some, but backed flow near a
modifying/retreating outflow boundary may support semi-discrete
development, primarily from the MN/WI border eastward. This would
locally increase the hail/tornado threat, likely around mid/late
afternoon. Considering these threats, a watch will likely be issued
within the next hour or so.

..Picca/Grams.. 06/17/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...

LAT...LON 44479372 44419390 44719519 44999557 45229575 45729517
46629394 46759137 46718932 46668896 46568856 45958830
44908882 44519253 44479372



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