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ACUS11 KWNS 282310
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 282310
KSZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-290045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0559
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0610 PM CDT Mon May 28 2018

Areas affected...Portions of southwestern KS into the TX/OK
Panhandles

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 129...

Valid 282310Z - 290045Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 129
continues.

SUMMARY...An ongoing large hail and damaging wind threat should
transition to mainly damaging winds over the next couple of hours
across WW 129.

DISCUSSION...Ascent ahead of a modest mid/upper-level jet has
encouraged scattered thunderstorms along and ahead of a surface
dryline this afternoon across parts of southwestern KS into the
TX/OK Panhandles. A well-mixed boundary layer suggested by large
surface temperature-dewpoint spreads of 25-35F across this region
will encourage accelerating downdrafts with an associated damaging
wind threat with ongoing convection. Large hail will also be a
concern with semi-discrete thunderstorms given steep mid-level lapse
rates and 30-40 kt of effective bulk shear supporting updraft
organization. Several instances of 1-1.75 inch hail have recently
been reported on the TX Panhandle and southwestern KS. Continued
storm mergers/interactions and a modestly strengthening
southeasterly LLJ over the next couple of hours will probably result
in a consolidation of thunderstorms into a line with mainly a
damaging wind threat continuing through this evening.

..Gleason.. 05/28/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...

LAT...LON 35710260 37030201 38210156 38209889 37459907 37010007
35650010 34770110 34800230 35710260



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