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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0554

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, May 28, 2018 18:48:57
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 281848
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 281848
    GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-282145-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0554
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0148 PM CDT Mon May 28 2018

    Areas affected...Portions of Georgia and southeastern Alabama

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

    Valid 281848Z - 282145Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...An isolated tornado threat may develop to the northeast of
    Alberto this afternoon. Trends will be monitored for a possible
    Tornado Watch.

    DISCUSSION...Latest NLDN lightning data from 1845Z shows an increase
    in electrical activity within the last hour in the outer rainbands
    to the northeast of Alberto's center. This is likely the result of
    convective cells deepening as they move into an environment that has
    become unstable (e.g., MLCAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg) due to ample
    insolation over the last several hours. The low-level wind field is
    also increasing across the discussion area with regional VAD
    profiles and RAP mesoanalysis suggesting 0-1 SRH values of 100-200
    m2/s2. The low-level wind field is expected to continue increasing
    this afternoon as Alberto progresses toward the area, which will
    further elongate hodographs and may promote transient low-level
    rotation and subsequent brief tornadoes.

    While radar analysis over the last hour shows some weak low-level
    rotation with cells across the area, trends will be monitored for a
    more robust threat and a possible Tornado Watch.

    ..Elliott/Hart.. 05/28/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...

    LAT...LON 33028565 33448461 33248381 32908302 32428260 31888232
    30938257 30728295 30538324 30588381 30898467 31318533
    31818597 33028565



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