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ACUS11 KWNS 281817
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281816
NYZ000-PAZ000-282045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0551
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0116 PM CDT Mon May 28 2018

Areas affected...Portions of south-central New York and
north-central Pennsylvania

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 281816Z - 282045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase over the area this
afternoon. A few of these thunderstorms may produce isolated
damaging wind gusts and severe hail. A WW issuance is unlikely.

DISCUSSION...Strong heating across portions of New York and
Pennsylvania has allowed a cumulus congestus field to develop per
satellite imagery at 1800Z. Continued heating coupled with
convergence along a weak lake breeze surface boundary should allow thunderstorms to develop over the next hour or so, which is also
supported by various CAM solutions. While ample instability resides
over the area (e.g., MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg), deep-layer shear
values are relatively modest (20-25 knots). However, a belt of
slightly higher deep-layer shear near 30 knots is located across
portions of New York and far north-central Pennsylvania where
mid-level flow is a bit stronger.

While thunderstorm coverage is expected to be somewhat limited,
storms that move through the aforementioned environment will be
capable of producing isolated damaging wind gusts and severe hail
this afternoon -- especially where shear is maximized across
portions of New York. Storms should gradually weaken this evening as
the boundary layer stabilizes with the onset of nocturnal cooling. A
WW issuance is unlikely given the expected low coverage of any
severe threats.

..Elliott/Hart.. 05/28/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...

LAT...LON 42157792 42397744 42787671 43157576 43107518 42697483
42137479 41277685 40857785 40857819 40947876 41267906
41797872 42157792



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