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ACUS11 KWNS 281024
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281023
NEZ000-281300-

Mesoscale Discussion 0550
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0523 AM CDT Mon May 28 2018

Areas affected...Southwest into parts of central NE

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 281023Z - 281300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms will be possible through early to
perhaps mid morning across southwest into portions of central
Nebraska, with hail exceeding 1 inch in diameter possible. Limited
spatial coverage will preclude the need for a watch.

DISCUSSION...Trends in mosaic radar imagery and lightning data
showed increasing storm intensities across southwest and part of
central NE since 0920-0925Z, with this band now extending from
approximately 20 ENE KMCK to 25 SE KMHN. Additional storms are
forming in far southwest NE and adjacent northwest KS. The
convection across the area appears to be associated with forcing for
ascent attendant to a midlevel shortwave trough tracking to the
north-northeast across western/central NE into central SD this
morning. Although 850-mb streamline analysis indicated difluent
flow, 700-mb mesoanalysis data suggested a corridor of confluent
flow juxtaposed with the strongest ongoing band of storms, with warm
advection at this level likely steepening midlevel lapse rates.
Although effective bulk shear is expected to remain weak, steep
midlevel lapse rates and moderate elevated instability will continue
to support the potential for large hail. This severe risk should
persist until mid morning at the latest, as forcing for ascent
diminishes with the departure of the shortwave trough into the
Dakotas.

..Peters/Edwards.. 05/28/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...

LAT...LON 40200005 40070061 40180098 40620130 41130148 41700148
42250106 42600076 42700013 42689960 42529933 42119912
41679911 40929904 40539911 40339927 40200005



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