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ACUS11 KWNS 220223
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220223
OHZ000-220400-

Mesoscale Discussion 0488
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0923 PM CDT Mon May 21 2018

Areas affected...Central and southwest OH

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 113...

Valid 220223Z - 220400Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 113
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe-weather threat across central Ohio will undergo
further weakening, while a short-term (through 11 PM EDT) severe
risk remains possible from southwest into south-central Ohio.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms will continue through the evening and the
early overnight across southwest, central, and southern OH as a weak
midlevel trough and height falls spread through the upper Ohio
Valley and southern Great Lakes region. In addition to ongoing
storms extending into Wayne and Holmes Counties OH, new storms
developed after the merger of two convective outflow boundaries
extending from Madison to Brown Counties OH. Objective analyses
indicated an increase in surface-based inhibition and an overall
decrease in available instability which should limit an increase in
storm intensity into east-central OH.

Objective analyses indicated some increase in surface vorticity from
southwest into central OH (near Brown to Fayette Counties) that
could locally enhance the potential for low-level storm rotation.
However, this threat too should be short lived, as the
thermodynamics become unfavorable to sustain new updrafts.

..Peters.. 05/22/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...

LAT...LON 39128419 40018327 40618249 40828181 40788164 40128178
39578263 39128328 38918380 39128419



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ACUS11 KWNS 010030
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010029
ILZ000-MOZ000-010130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0488
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0729 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2019

Areas affected...Southeast MO...Southwest IL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 010029Z - 010130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...A new watch will likely be issued prior to 01Z, as severe
convection approaches the area from the west.

DISCUSSION...At 0020Z, a cluster of potentially tornadic supercells
is ongoing across south-central MO, with weaker convection noted
further northeast to the north of a surface boundary. As this
convection spreads eastward with time, some severe threat will
spread into portions of southeast MO/southwest IL that are currently
in Severe Thunderstorm Watch 112, or not in a watch. The longevity
of surface-based convection across this area is uncertain, as SBCINH
increases tonight, but instability and shear will be sufficient to
support some threat of rotating storms through the evening, with a corresponding threat of a couple of tornadoes, locally damaging
wind, and perhaps some hail.

Due to the 01Z expiration time of WW 112, a new watch is likely to
be issued shortly.

..Dean/Guyer.. 05/01/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF...

LAT...LON 36819095 37609123 38059147 38389103 38619056 38778974
38008939 37568952 37058991 36769025 36819095



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