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ACUS11 KWNS 220211
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220211
NMZ000-TXZ000-220315-

Mesoscale Discussion 0487
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0911 PM CDT Mon May 21 2018

Areas affected...Central/eastern New Mexico and far west Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 114...

Valid 220211Z - 220315Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 114
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across WW 114.

DISCUSSION...Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms continue to
migrate east/northeastward at around 20 knots across the WW at this
time. Reports of 1-1.75 inch hail stones and 60-70 mph wind gusts
have been reported on occasion with the strongest activity. These
trends should continue for at least another hour or two given weak
to moderate buoyancy in the pre-convective airmass and 40-50 knots
of deep shear supporting continued organization.

With time, storms should exhibit a weakening trend as they progress
toward eastern portions of the WW due to nocturnal boundary layer
cooling and weakening buoyancy. Models (particularly the HRRR)
continue to insist on upscale growth of the ongoing clusters of
activity, and this process has begun especially with storms across
far west Texas into southern Otero County NM. The overall threat of
1"+ hail and wind gusts should also gradually lessen with time in
tandem with the stabilizing boundary layer.

..Cook.. 05/22/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

LAT...LON 34920634 35240548 35750457 35640395 34950364 34270386
33470412 31250476 30720483 30640516 30920583 31360627
31730654 32570664 33900652 34920634



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ACUS11 KWNS 302347
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302347
OKZ000-TXZ000-010145-

Mesoscale Discussion 0487
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0647 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2019

Areas affected...West TX

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 114...

Valid 302347Z - 010145Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 114
continues.

SUMMARY...Isolated severe thunderstorms will continue across West TX
this evening.

DISCUSSION...Isolated convection that developed along the dryline
across West TX has progressed roughly 100mi east of the boundary.
Strongest thunderstorms have shifted into Haskell County...just
south of a synoptic front that is draped from Tillman County
OK-north of LBB. Lone supercell farther south over Crockett County
is drifting slowly east-southeast and may begin to weaken over the
next few hours. Current thinking is more organized convection may
concentrate along the synoptic front as it stalls over northwest TX.
Hail remains the primary threat.

..Darrow.. 04/30/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON 30460285 34470185 34479904 30480017 30460285



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