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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0486

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, May 22, 2018 00:03:54
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    ACUS11 KWNS 220003
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 220003
    OHZ000-INZ000-220200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0486
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0703 PM CDT Mon May 21 2018

    Areas affected...Southeast IN and parts of western and central OH

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 113...

    Valid 220003Z - 220200Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 113
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe storms remain possible this
    evening across central and southwest Ohio, with locally strong,
    damaging wind gusts and hail the primary severe-weather threats.

    DISCUSSION...Mosaic radar imagery showed a band of storms extending
    from Crawford and Morrow Counties OH to southern IN, moving toward
    the east-northeast. The more intense storms (per greater number of
    lightning strikes in 5 minutes) are located in OH (Montgomery and
    Miami Counties, and Logan to Crawford Counties). These latter
    stronger storms are located within the overlap of the northern
    extent of moderate instability and stronger effective bulk shear for
    organized storms. Trends in radar imagery and surface observations
    showed a lake breeze had advanced south to northern Richland and
    Medina Counties OH, with the leading storms extending from Crawford
    and Morrow Counties to Marion County should track along the lake
    breeze. Isolated hail and damaging winds will be the primary
    threats, though surface vorticity in vicinity of the lake breeze and
    enhanced low-level shear may support a tornado. These threats may
    extend a little east of the watch in the short term, prior to an
    expected increase of surface-based inhibition due to the loss of
    daytime heating.

    Although deep-layer shear is much weaker with southward extent into
    southwest OH, residual steep surface-3 km lapse rates of 7-7.5 C/km
    and moderate instability suggest locally strong wind gusts will be
    the primary severe risk.

    ..Peters.. 05/22/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...

    LAT...LON 39888472 40468411 40628349 40958280 41038224 40798207
    40408242 39828281 39548370 39298437 39298528 39558507
    39888472



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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, April 30, 2019 23:01:22
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    ACUS11 KWNS 302301
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 302300
    MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-010030-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0486
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0600 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2019

    Areas affected...Eastern OK...Southeast KS...Northwest AR...Southern
    MO

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 111...

    Valid 302300Z - 010030Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 111 continues.

    SUMMARY...The threat for tornadic supercells continues in the short
    term, with an eventual evolution into more of a damaging wind/QLCS
    tornado risk possible later tonight.

    DISCUSSION...Occasionally tornadic supercells are ongoing across
    northeast OK, southwest MO, northwest AR at 23Z, within an
    environment characterized by MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg, effective
    shear of 45-55 kt, and effective SRH of 250-400 m2/s2. While this
    activity is not quite as intense as earlier today, there continues
    to be a threat of tornadoes with any of the remaining semi-discrete
    supercells south of the cold front, including the threat of a strong
    tornado or two.

    Meanwhile, convection has congealed along and just behind the
    primary cold front from southeast KS into northeast OK. As the
    low-level jet intensifies into this region this evening, further
    upscale growth is possible, and an eastward-moving complex capable
    of damaging wind and QLCS-mode tornadoes may become the primary
    threat later tonight.

    ..Dean.. 04/30/2019

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...ICT...

    LAT...LON 36649587 37929532 38039378 37989243 37809158 37369087
    36859110 36479235 36069301 35649349 35169405 34789478
    36329587 36649587



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