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ACUS11 KWNS 212256
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212256
NMZ000-TXZ000-220000-

Mesoscale Discussion 0485
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0556 PM CDT Mon May 21 2018

Areas affected...Much of New Mexico and far west Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 112...

Valid 212256Z - 220000Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 112
continues.

SUMMARY...Potential exists for severe thunderstorms in WW 112, and
additional potential may develop south and east of this Watch. The
probability of a new Severe Thunderstorm Watch south of 112 is 20%,
while local spatial expansion may occur east of the Watch as needed.

DISCUSSION...Storms have organized into a linear, north-south
oriented band across central New Mexico over the past hour or so.
Meanwhile, new convection was maturing south of the Watch along the
Rio Grande Valley. Within the pre-convective airmass, weak to
moderate surface-based instability and modest deep shear (40 knots)
continued to support continued organization within ongoing activity.
Low-level upslope and terrain features were also encouraging
convective development in a few areas. These storms will continue
to pose a hail/wind risk into the evening. The convection south of
WW 112 should not require a WW issuance unless storms can somehow
organize into a severe, forward-propagating linear segment in those
areas. The probability of a new watch issuance in this area is 20%.

East of WW 112, the ongoing, forward-propagating MCS should persist
through eastern New Mexico and perhaps reach the Texas border with
time. While some severe threat will exist, the magnitude of this
threat is uncertain as the higher severe threat was initially tied
to central NM areas. Any extensions of the ongoing watch in these
areas can be handled via local spatial extensions as needed.

..Cook/Hart.. 05/21/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

LAT...LON 34150807 34620799 34940788 35330718 36360654 36830594
36940508 36720439 35920397 34380394 32990418 32110481
31510554 31500623 31660642 31710682 31780735 32100774
33070790 34150807



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ACUS11 KWNS 302221
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302221
OKZ000-TXZ000-302345-

Mesoscale Discussion 0485
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0521 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2019

Areas affected...Central OK into North TX

Concerning...Tornado Watch 111...113...

Valid 302221Z - 302345Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 111, 113 continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for tornadoes and large hail continues. A
conditional strong tornado threat will remain present with any
semi-discrete supercell.

DISCUSSION...At 2215Z, widespread convection is ongoing across north
TX into central OK, with an outflow-reinforced cold front starting
to move southeastward from the OKC metro into southwest OK. Multiple
storm mergers have resulted in a relatively disorganized storm mode
across much of central/southern OK, but one tornadic supercell
recently crossed the Red River from Clay County TX into Cotton
County OK. While storm mode may continue to be a complicating factor
into this evening, any sustained semi-discrete supercell will have
the potential to produce a strong tornado, given the strong
instability and favorable shear profiles noted on the 20Z OUN
sounding and recent mesoanalyses. Backed low-level flow and an
increasing low-level jet this evening will continue to support a
tornado threat as ongoing pre-frontal convection spreads northeast
with time into southeast OK and northeast TX.

As the outflow/cold front moves southeastward with time, areas on
the cool side of the boundary will see a substantial reduction in
the tornado threat, but a threat for large hail will continue with
the strongest elevated updrafts. Some upscale growth is possible
with time along and just behind the front, with a corresponding
potential for damaging wind gusts.

..Dean.. 04/30/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...

LAT...LON 31689874 32699891 33499888 34359858 35069799 35729744
36079690 36299598 34729611 32619660 31669686 31619822
31689874



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