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ACUS11 KWNS 212100
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212100
COZ000-NEZ000-WYZ000-212300-

Mesoscale Discussion 0484
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0400 PM CDT Mon May 21 2018

Areas affected...Southeast Wyoming...northeast Colorado...and a
small portion of southwest Nebraska panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 212100Z - 212300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated severe hail and wind threat will exist into
early evening.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery at 2345Z shows a few cells
initiating over the the higher terrain of southeast Wyoming and
northeast Colorado. MLCAPE values around 1000-1500 J/kg and
effective bulk shear of 30-35 kts will support an isolated severe
hail and wind threat. However, with the upper-level ridge axis over
the area and modest height rises over the past few hours, the
overall coverage of storms should remain isolated and not warrant a
WW issuance.

..Wendt/Weiss.. 05/21/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GLD...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON 43090531 43250424 42030388 41040278 39830220 39010268
39330368 39590483 40910539 41980562 43090531



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ACUS11 KWNS 302136
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302135
INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-302230-

Mesoscale Discussion 0484
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0435 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2019

Areas affected...Eastern MO...IL

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 112...

Valid 302135Z - 302230Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 112
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe threat continues across the entire watch, although
primarily focused across the southern and eastern part in the short
term.

DISCUSSION...Low-level warm advection remains focused along a
corridor from the southern Plains into the Mid-MS Valley. This
appears partly responsible for strong/severe thunderstorms that have
evolved from southeast MO into central IL. This activity has
developed along the southern flank of an ejecting speed
max/short-wave trough that is ejecting across southern Lake MI. With
time a linear MCS may evolve over the eastern half of ww112,
especially along the warm frontal zone. If so, wind threat would
increase accordingly.

..Darrow.. 04/30/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...IND...ILX...LSX...

LAT...LON 39199121 40488759 39048758 37759123 39199121



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