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ACUS11 KWNS 211741
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211741
COZ000-NMZ000-211945-

Mesoscale Discussion 0480
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1241 PM CDT Mon May 21 2018

Areas affected...Northern and west-central New
Mexico...south-central Colorado

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 211741Z - 211945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few severe storms will be possible with isolated
instances of severe hail and wind gusts. WW issuance is unlikely at
this time.

DISCUSSION...Per water-vapor imagery, storms have developed in
response to an approaching mid-level short-wave trough. Dewpoints in
the mid to upper-40s have contributed to MUCAPE values near 1500
J/kg. MRMS MESH values have indicated marginally severe hail with
the storms over Catron, extreme northwest Socorro, and Cibola
counties, New Mexico. With effective bulk shear values at 25-30 kts,
storms that form in this region will continue to pose an isolated
severe hail and wind threat. At this time, the coverage of severe
storms is expected to be too limited to warrant WW issuance across
the discussion area. However, later this afternoon, storms are
expected to develop and increase in coverage east/southeast of the
discussion area where a WW will be more likely.

..Wendt/Elliott/Weiss.. 05/21/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ...EPZ...GJT...

LAT...LON 33250823 33640829 34670807 35290817 36080819 36680813
37360739 37620690 37670600 37260562 36670557 36240573
35550656 34090628 33230675 32900772 33250823



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------------=_1556650435-1967-6301
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ACUS11 KWNS 301853
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301853
TXZ000-OKZ000-302100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0480
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0153 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2019

Areas affected...North-central Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 301853Z - 302100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...A severe threat is likely to develop this afternoon across
parts of north-central Texas. Large hail, wind damage and an
isolated tornado threat can be expected. Weather watch issuance will
likely be needed.

DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows a stationary front
located in southwest Oklahoma and northwest Texas. The airmass
southeast of the front is moderately unstable with surface dewpoints
near 70 F. MLCAPE values are generally estimated in the 2000 to 3000
J/kg range by the RAP. In addition, the RAP has moderate deep-layer
shear across north-central Texas with 0-6 km shear estimated in the
35 to 45 kt range. This will be favorable for supercells. The main
uncertainty is the exact timing of initiation. The latest radar
imagery shows weak echos in the vicinity of Stephenville. The
current thinking is that a storm will develop in this area sometime
between 20Z and 21Z. After that, convective coverage is expected to
expand with a cluster moving east-northeastward toward the
Dallas-Fort Worth metro area, possibly approaching the Red River
later this afternoon. Supercells will likely be associated with
large hail and wind damage. An isolated tornado threat is also
expected as low-level shear increases during the late afternoon and
early evening.

..Broyles/Hart.. 04/30/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...

LAT...LON 31709733 31179776 31079894 31269975 31670026 32459997
33319943 33929880 33969756 33889690 33699662 33319652
32839675 31709733



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