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ACUS11 KWNS 150133
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150132
KSZ000-150300-

Mesoscale Discussion 0421
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0832 PM CDT Mon May 14 2018

Areas affected...Western KS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 150132Z - 150300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...The long-lived intense thunderstorm cluster across western
KS will continue to pose a localized significant severe risk in the
short term, though the duration of the threat is uncertain.

DISCUSSION...At 0130Z, an intense supercell cluster was moving
southeast across west-central KS. The cluster is likely slightly
elevated, given its presentation on visible satellite imagery and
location north of a surface boundary, but moderate instability and
effective shear of 40-50 kt has allowed the cluster to become well
organized. While effective shear will remain favorable downstream,
the thermodynamic environment is expected to become increasingly
hostile, as SB CINH increases. This cluster will likely become
increasingly elevated with time, and with the low-level jet expected
to be focused east of this area, a gradual decreasing trend is
expected later this evening.

Given the very localized nature and expected limited duration of the
threat, no watch issuance is currently anticipated unless additional
upscale growth occurs. However, until a definitive weakening trend
commences, wind-driven large hail capable of significant damage will
continue to be a threat with this system.

..Dean/Hart.. 05/15/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON 38680109 38680053 38389944 37999942 37759966 37830015
37980072 38130114 38290143 38410159 38680109



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ACUS11 KWNS 230041
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230041
TXZ000-NMZ000-230245-

Mesoscale Discussion 0421
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0741 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2019

Areas affected...Southeast New Mexico and adjacent portions of
western Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 230041Z - 230245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Increasing strong to severe thunderstorm development,
including a couple of supercells, is expected to spread east of the
Sacramento and Guadalupe Mountains through 8-10 PM MDT.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have recently increased within a broken
band across the higher terrain surrounding the Rio Grande Valley of
New Mexico, into the western slopes of the Sacramento Mountains.
This may be supported by another in a series of perturbations
emanating from large-scale Southwestern mid/upper troughing, which
will continue northeastward into the southern High Plains this
evening.

To the lee of the Sacramento Mountains, lower/mid tropospheric lapse
rates have become rather steep, and the boundary layer is now in the
process of moistening on northeasterly post-cold frontal upslope
flow. It appears this destabilization will lead to new thunderstorm development which will gradually spread off the higher terrain into
the plains through 02-04Z, in the presence of 20-30 kt southwesterly
deep layer mean flow.

Despite the somewhat modest strength of the low/mid-level wind
fields, pronounced turning of winds with height is contributing to
strong deep layer shear supportive of supercells capable of
producing severe hail and locally strong surface gusts.

..Kerr/Edwards.. 04/23/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...

LAT...LON 34100496 34070436 33530395 33130338 32850309 31860325
31650410 32120458 33640534 34100496



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