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ACUS11 KWNS 150105
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150105
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-150230-

Mesoscale Discussion 0420
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0805 PM CDT Mon May 14 2018

Areas affected...Western OK...Northwest TX...Far South-central KS

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 89...91...

Valid 150105Z - 150230Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 89, 91
continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for severe hail and wind continues across WW
91, but a decreasing trend is expected this evening.

DISCUSSION...Potentially severe thunderstorms are ongoing across
portions of northwest OK, and also far southwest OK at 01Z. However,
the cluster that earlier produced 65+ kt wind gusts around Childress
into far southwest OK has weakened rapidly over the past 30 minutes,
with outflow surging well ahead of the trailing convection. While
strong instability was noted on the 00Z OUN sounding, weak midlevel
flow and increasing SB CINH with time this evening should continue
to result in a weakening trend with ongoing convection, though the
strongest updrafts will remain capable of large hail and locally
damaging wind in the short term. Downstream watch issuance or
extension into central OK does not seem warranted at this time,
though the decaying convective system may continue to produce
locally gusty winds into mid/late evening.

Further north, a left-moving supercell is approaching south-central
KS at 01Z. A narrow corridor of strong instability (between a cold
front to the north and outflow to the southeast) is in place
downstream of this cell, and it will likely continue to pose a
threat of very large hail as it moves northeast into south-central
KS.

..Dean.. 05/15/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON 33640126 35749984 36899906 37289852 37319784 35919782
34999845 34239888 33789921 33599953 33590050 33580074
33640126



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ACUS11 KWNS 222301
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222301
TXZ000-230100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0420
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0601 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2019

Areas affected...Parts of the Texas South Plain and northwest Texas
into southwestern Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 222301Z - 230100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorm development is possible
across parts of the Texas South Plains into northwest Texas through
9-11 PM CDT. Mostly marginally severe hail appears the primary
hazard, but potential for gusty winds could increase by late
evening.

DISCUSSION...Models suggest that upper flow is becoming increasingly
divergent across the Texas Panhandle and South Plains region, within
the left exit region of a fairly strong cyclonic mid/upper jet
nosing northeastward into/through the Texas Big Bend region. Recent thunderstorm initiation across the South Plains, west/northwest of
Snyder, appears to be associated with a zone of lower/mid
tropospheric warm advection. This is on the northwestern periphery
of a broad plume of elevated mixed-layer air advecting northwest of
the Rio Grande Valley, where mid-level inhibition is relatively weak
and forecast to continue weakening in response to increasing
large-scale ascent.

Initial convection also appears to be occurring above/to the cool
northwest side of a surface frontal zone which has surged southward
through much of the Texas South Plains. However, sustained
convergence along the frontal may support additional thunderstorm
development, in the presence of modest mixed-layer CAPE of 1000-1500
J/kg.

Lower/mid tropospheric wind fields are expected to remain rather
weak across this region, with only gradual strengthening of
south-southwesterly deep layer mean flow from 20-30 kt through the
evening associated with the northeastward progression of the upper
jet. However, deep layer shear is becoming strong, and could
gradually support an organizing cluster of thunderstorms near the
front, south through southeast of Lubbock into the vicinity of
Childress through 02-04Z. Mostly marginally severe hail may be the
primary severe hazard into isolated stronger storms, but a
consolidating, strengthening surface cold pool could gradually be
accompanied by gusty surface winds by late evening.

..Kerr/Edwards.. 04/22/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON 32940239 33320140 34140076 34449993 34089917 32740017
32060188 32430235 32940239



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