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ACUS11 KWNS 150015
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150015
MOZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-150145-

Mesoscale Discussion 0419
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0715 PM CDT Mon May 14 2018

Areas affected...Eastern KS...Western/Central MO...Northeast OK

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 89...91...

Valid 150015Z - 150145Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 89, 91
continues.

SUMMARY...The risk for scattered severe thunderstorms continues
across WW 89. Some threat may extend outside of the watch into
northeast OK and southwest MO.

DISCUSSION...Scattered severe thunderstorms continue across portions
of eastern KS and western MO at 00Z. The strongest storm is
affecting Cowley County KS, with very large hail and at least one
tornado reported within the last hour. This storm is beginning to
move southeastward into northern OK, and the severe threat will
likely spread into the far northeast part of WW 91, and also into
Osage County OK, where no watch is in effect. Given the isolated
nature of the storm and its relatively slow movement, downstream
watch issuance is not anticipated in the short term across northeast
OK.

Further east, a couple of small bowing segments have developed over western/central MO, one northwest of Springfield and the other west
of Columbia. Some damaging wind threat will exist in the short term
with these bowing segments, though a weakening trend is expected
this evening, given relatively weak midlevel flow/effective shear
(as noted on 00Z SGF sounding) and increasing SB CINH.

Elsewhere across WW 89, storms will likely continue into at least
mid-evening, with redevelopment possible on various outflows across
the region, though a gradual decreasing trend is expected as diurnal
cooling commences.

..Dean/Hart.. 05/15/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON 36659643 37099750 37479754 38699661 38939508 39109242
38629141 38289099 37929099 37289144 36889279 36799389
36699504 36659601 36659643



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ACUS11 KWNS 221942
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221942
ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-222145-

Mesoscale Discussion 0419
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0242 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2019

Areas affected...Portions of eastern IA...northwest
Illinois...southwest Wisconsin

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 221942Z - 222145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms, capable of producing damaging wind
gusts and marginally severe hail, will be possible over the next
several hours. A WW is not anticipated at this time.

DISCUSSION...A 1012 mb surface low is slowly translating across
Iowa, in tandem with a 500-mb shortwave trough and associated
differential CVA, providing modest deep-layer ascent to portions of
the Upper-Mississippi Valley. Marginal destabilization has
transpired over the past few hours, with limited solar radiation
penetrating the upper-level cirrus deck and warming the boundary
layer. Modest heating is expected to continue, and with the
continued deep-layer ascent slowly increasing across the area, a
gradual increase in convection may be expected throughout the
afternoon hours.

The vertical thermodynamic profile across the area is relatively
modest, with steep sfc-3km lapse rates at nearly 8 C/km, and 7 C/km
lapse rates above 3 km (based on the DVN 18Z observed sounding), but
with mediocre low-level moisture (dewpoints mainly below 60F, with a
near 20F T/Td spread). As a result, MLCAPE is expected to remain
around/below 1000 J/kg through the afternoon, amidst 30-45 knots of
effective bulk shear and weak low-level shear, supporting a marginal
severe threat. The relatively steep low-level lapse rates may
promote damaging wind gusts with the stronger downdrafts. Given the
modest lapse rates above 3 km, a few instances of marginally severe
hail may also occur. Still, the combination of marginal deep-layer
ascent, buoyancy, and vertical wind shear, suggests that the severe
threat will be isolated, with a severe WW issuance not expected.

..Squitieri.. 04/22/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...

LAT...LON 41308989 41709275 42299280 42869248 43479204 43649129
43399056 43068988 42358944 41608924 41308989



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