This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

------------=_1526341020-23415-8523
Content-Type: text/plain

ACUS11 KWNS 142336
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142336
MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-150100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0418
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0636 PM CDT Mon May 14 2018

Areas affected...IL...Northern IN...Southwest MI

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 90...

Valid 142336Z - 150100Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 90
continues.

SUMMARY...Some threat for locally damaging wind and marginally
severe hail continues across WW 90. Some threat may extend
downstream out of the watch into northern IN/southwest MI, but no
watch issuance is expected in that area at this time.

DISCUSSION...The earlier bow echo that moved across the St. Louis
metro has weakened quite a bit over the past hour, as it has moved
into a region with somewhat less instability and midlevel
flow/effective shear. Some residual wind threat may persist in the
short term with this system as it decays. Further north, elevated
convection has developed north of a boundary in the Chicagoland
area, while other storms were attempting to develop near the surface
boundary across east-central IL. Moderate instability and somewhat
stronger effective shear (compared to areas further south) would
support some severe wind and hail risk with any surface-based storms
that can become established near the boundary across northern IL.
Any such activity would likely spread into portions of northern IN
and southern MI with time, though at this time the magnitude of the
threat appears too limited for downstream watch issuance.

..Dean/Hart.. 05/14/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...

LAT...LON 38639094 39919068 41688901 42318783 42398636 42238571
41708572 41148633 40648786 39228862 38618908 38299020
38399076 38639094



------------=_1526341020-23415-8523
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII"
Content-Disposition: inline
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. ------------=_1526341020-23415-8523--

--- SBBSecho 3.03-Linux
* Origin: CCO BBS - capitolcityonline.net:26 (1:2320/105)

This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

------------=_1555892149-1967-2547
Content-Type: text/plain

ACUS11 KWNS 220015
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220015
KSZ000-NEZ000-220145-

Mesoscale Discussion 0418
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0715 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2019

Areas affected...Parts of north central Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 220015Z - 220145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm activity capable of producing small hail and
a few strong wind gusts may persist, and possibly increase some, for
a period this evening. However, overall, the threat still appears
marginal enough that a severe weather watch will not be needed.

DISCUSSION...Ongoing small, but sustained cluster of thunderstorms
has accelerated some while advancing east-northeastward during the
past couple of hours, from near 20 to around 30 kt. Activity has
been mostly post-cold frontal, aided by mid-level cooling and
sufficient boundary layer moisture to contribute to CAPE locally up
to around 1000-1500 J/kg. Deep layer wind fields and shear are
mostly modest to weak, but initially steep lower/mid tropospheric
lapse rates have been sufficient to support mainly small hail and a
few strong wind gusts.

It remains unclear how much longer this activity will maintain
strength as it spreads near/to the south and east of Hill City. It
seems possible that it may weaken as the cold front overtakes the
dryline and supports the initiation of new thunderstorm activity
downstream, around the Hays, Russell, Smith Center and Beloit
vicinities. It is possible that shear associated with strengthening
southerly 850 mb flow across this region could aid organization of consolidating new development. But any associated severe wind
threat probably will be limited by the onset of boundary layer
cooling, which likely will result in an increasingly marginal
thermodynamic environment for vigorous convection.

..Kerr/Hart.. 04/22/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON 39949884 40019749 39509668 38279797 38069948 38480001
39429953 39949884



------------=_1555892149-1967-2547
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII"
Content-Disposition: inline
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. ------------=_1555892149-1967-2547--

--- SBBSecho 3.06-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)