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ACUS11 KWNS 142204
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142204
KSZ000-COZ000-150000-

Mesoscale Discussion 0416
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0504 PM CDT Mon May 14 2018

Areas affected...East-central CO...Western KS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 142204Z - 150000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A strong thunderstorm cluster moving out of eastern CO
will continue to pose a threat of large hail and perhaps severe wind
gusts into portions of western KS into early evening.

DISCUSSION...A potentially severe thunderstorm is ongoing across
east-central CO at 22Z, moving east-southeast toward western KS.
Moderate instability and strong effective shear of 40-50 kt will
continue to support organization with vigorous updrafts across this
region. Some uncertainty exists regarding the longevity of this
storm, as the character of boundary-later cumulus on visible
satellite imagery suggests that some capping remains. However, some
large hail and severe wind threat will exist for at least the short
term, with some threat potentially persisting into early evening if
any upscale growth occurs. At this time, the threat is expected to
remain too isolated and marginal for watch issuance, though this
will be reevaluated if convective organization increases downstream.

..Dean/Hart.. 05/14/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...BOU...

LAT...LON 39260340 39660297 39800202 39410113 38640082 38420102
38660198 38910308 39260340



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ACUS11 KWNS 212023
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212022
KSZ000-COZ000-212215-

Mesoscale Discussion 0416
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0322 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2019

Areas affected...Eastern CO...Northwest KS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 212022Z - 212215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Gusty winds are expected with convection as it spreads
into northwest KS. WW is not anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Strong boundary-layer heating has contributed to steep
low-level lapse rates across the central High Plains this afternoon.
Surface temperatures have warmed into the 80s across east-central CO...northeast along a boundary draped across northwest KS. As a
result, deeply mixed boundary layer is conducive for high-based
thunderstorm development. Over the last hour or so, convection has
developed along the trailing wind shift stretching from Arapahoe-Elbert-Cheyenne counties in CO. This activity is expected
to propagate into northwest KS over the next few hours along
aforementioned wind shift. With relatively dry sub-cloud conditions
(temp-dew point spreads on the order of 40F), gusty winds should be
common beneath heavier rain bursts. Small hail may also accompany
the strongest storms.

..Darrow/Thompson.. 04/21/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...

LAT...LON 39410240 39419997 38450018 38280200 38640263 39410240



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