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ACUS11 KWNS 142137
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142137
MDZ000-VAZ000-142230-

Mesoscale Discussion 0415
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0437 PM CDT Mon May 14 2018

Areas affected...VA...Southern MD

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 142137Z - 142230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Severe threat will increase across central/southeast VA
early this evening.

DISCUSSION...MCS is slowly organizing over northern VA/MD. Lagging
precip shield/cold pool is beginning to expand in areal coverage
suggesting this cluster of storms should continue to propagate
southeast. Several members of the latest CAMS guidance support this
scenario and it appears the threat of large hail/damaging winds will
spread south of ww88 in the next few hours. New watch will likely be
issued soon to account for this threat.

..Darrow.. 05/14/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...

LAT...LON 38207900 38147538 36727600 37377894 38207900



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ACUS11 KWNS 200443
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200442
NCZ000-200615-

Mesoscale Discussion 0415
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1142 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2019

Areas affected...eastern North Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 200442Z - 200615Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...At least a marginal risk for isolated strong to damaging
wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado will exist over a portion of
eastern NC next couple hours. Unless storms begin to show a more
substantial tendency for organization, a WW will probably not be
needed.

DISCUSSION...A band of storms has recently increased from the Gulf
Stream into a portion of southeast NC and appears to be developing
along a pre-frontal convergence boundary. Adjusted for surface
temperatures and dewpoints, RAP forecast soundings suggest the
storms are probably slightly elevated above a shallow surface stable
layer, and objective analysis indicates MLCAPE around 500 J/kg.
Storms remain embedded within very strong largely unidirectional
wind profiles with 55 kt 0-6 km shear. Based on current
north-northeast storm motions, 0-1 km storm relative helicity
remains around 150-200 m2/s2 despite strong low-level speed shear.
The marginal thermodynamic environment should remain a primary
limiting factor. Nevertheless, trends will continue to be monitored
for potential organization.

..Dial/Dean.. 04/20/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...

LAT...LON 34037740 35367746 36227701 35977592 34597625 34037740



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