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ACUS11 KWNS 142010
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142010
OKZ000-TXZ000-142215-

Mesoscale Discussion 0414
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0310 PM CDT Mon May 14 2018

Areas affected...Portions of western and northern Oklahoma and the
southeast Texas panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 142010Z - 142215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to rapidly develop over the
next two hours. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch may be needed.

DISCUSSION...Strong heating and boundary-layer dewpoints in the low
60s over western Oklahoma and upper-60s to near 70 over west-central
and northern Oklahoma, has eroded most of the convective inhibition
over the area, as indicated by surface mesoanalyses and deepening boundary-layer cumulus. The cumulus is especially numerous from
Enid northward where convergence has been stronger throughout the
early afternoon and temperatures have reached the low 90s.

Moderate to large MLCAPE values of 3000-4000 J/kg and steep
low-to-mid-level lapse rates will contribute to a threat for severe
wind gusts and severe hail, particularly with the initial storms
that develop, which are expected first over the southern and western
portions of the area, and from Enid northward. As cold pools from
convection over Texas spread northward into western Oklahoma in the southerly/southwesterly flow, additional thunderstorms will develop
rapidly over the central portion of the area. The limiting factor
for a more organized severe threat continues to be rather weak
deep-layer shear, which is smaller than it was yesterday under a
similar thermodynamic environment. Nonetheless, storm and severe
wind gust/hail coverage is expected to be enough to make a Severe
Thunderstorm Watch possible in the next few hours.

..Coniglio/Grams.. 05/14/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON 34859901 34479993 34490055 34590099 34850094 35500038
35910003 35909992 36689919 36959868 36989828 36939744
36659734 35569815 34859901



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ACUS11 KWNS 200055
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200054
PAZ000-200230-

Mesoscale Discussion 0414
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0754 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2019

Areas affected...Southern/central PA

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 93...

Valid 200054Z - 200230Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 93
continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for locally damaging wind and perhaps a brief
tornado continues in and near WW 93. Some limited severe threat may
extend north of the watch into central PA.

DISCUSSION...Several reports of wind damage have been received over
the past 1-2 hours across south-central PA, associated with
periodically organized bands of convection spreading northeastward
across the area. While instability remains limited across this
region and is not likely to improve with time, very strong
deep-layer flow and favorable shear profiles will continue to
support organized convective structures capable of damaging wind and
perhaps a brief tornado over the next 1-2 hours at least.

While some severe threat may extend outside of the watch into
central PA, decreasing instability with northward extent should
continue to result in weakening of convection as it moves out of the
watch, such as what happened earlier with the bowing segment that
moved east of State College. Thus, no additional watch issuance is
expected north of WW 93, though local expansion remains an option
depending on convective trends.

..Dean.. 04/20/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...CTP...

LAT...LON 39767800 40167786 40697765 40987755 41087697 40637657
40367624 40157597 39907598 39737616 39747702 39767800



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