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ACUS11 KWNS 141932
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141932
TXZ000-142100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0412
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0232 PM CDT Mon May 14 2018

Areas affected...Portions of southwest...western and northwest Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 141932Z - 142100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms have developed near a dryline over the area.
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch may be needed later this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms have developed over the last
hour, one area southwest of Sweetwater along a narrow, northward
surge of higher boundary-layer moisture, and the other over the
Davis Mountains over the southwestern portion of the area.
Dewpoints in the mid-to-upper 60s and temperatures in the upper 80s
have contributed to moderate to large instability within the
moisture surge east of a dryline over the area. Rather low
effective bulk shear over the northern portion of the area should
preclude storm organization there, but the large instability and
very steep lapse rates, both in low- and mid-levels, will contribute
to a threat for severe wind gusts with any of the storms that
develop, along with a risk for marginally-severe hail. As the
tongue of higher moisture pushes northward, additional thunderstorms
are expected to develop between Sweetwater and Childress, posing a
threat for strong to severe wind gusts and severe hail.

Over the southwestern portion of the area, easterly low-level flow
and a moist, unstable air mass, as seen by the recent 86/67
observation at Sanderson, should maintain storm development eastward
in the next few hours. Additionally, larger deep-layer shear in the
stronger sub-tropical flow should maintain storm organization,
including supercells, and the threat for severe wind gusts and hail
over this time. Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop in
between the above mentioned areas, affecting the San Angelo area in
the next few hours with similar threats for severe wind and hail.

The lack of stronger deep-layer shear over most of the area, and
subsequent expectation of disorganized storm modes, is preventing a
more certain determination of Watch issuance this afternoon. But if
widespread storm development occurs along the moisture surge, as
suggested by some high-resolution guidance, a Severe Thunderstorm
Watch may be needed.

..Coniglio/Grams.. 05/14/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON 33219914 31849966 31659972 30490087 30050166 29860234
29790315 30020348 30420361 30580340 31120221 31870134
33480101 34370044 34259966 33839909 33219914



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ACUS11 KWNS 192311
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192311
FLZ000-200045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0412
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0611 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2019

Areas affected...South FL and the FL Keys

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 92...

Valid 192311Z - 200045Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 92
continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for isolated damaging wind will continue this
evening as a line of thunderstorms moves eastward. If there is an
uptick in thunderstorm intensity over the next hour, then a watch
extension into the remainder of south Florida may be necessary.

DISCUSSION...At 23Z, a line of thunderstorms is advancing eastward
across the southern FL peninsula, with additional thunderstorm
development recently noted down into the FL Keys. This activity
should continue to progress eastward through the remainder of south
FL and the FL Keys between now and 02Z, as it moves through a warm,
moist, and moderately unstable (MLCAPE 1500-2000 J/kg) environment.
Effective shear of 40-50 kt is sufficient to support updraft
organization, but thus far, convection has remained relatively
disorganized, with only weak midlevel rotation noted and no tendency
for the development of bowing segments or embedded supercells.

The potential for an uptick in storm organization with time remains
uncertain, as convection becomes increasingly removed from the
primary upper low across the TN Valley. However, given the otherwise
favorable environment, the threat remains for at least isolated
damaging wind this evening. If there is an uptick in organization
over the next hour or so, then it may become necessary to extend WW
92 into the remainder of south FL, but otherwise the threat should
remain isolated and the watch can be cleared as the line advances
eastward.

..Dean/Hart.. 04/19/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...KEY...

LAT...LON 25878140 27108083 27728039 27097989 26097999 25548011
25308023 25018044 24698092 24518181 24628211 24928192
25878140



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